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Why Early Season Stats Can Be Misleading

Why Early Season Stats Can Be Misleading

The baseball season is still in its first month but the internet and other news media are overloaded with stats. The MLB stats are updated on a constant basis and they cover each and every small detail of a game and a player’s performance. However, some fans do have the habit of reading too much into statistics, especially at the start of the season. What they don’t realize is that performances over the first 3 or 4 games do not determine if a player will perform poorly or exceptionally over the remaining part of the season. This is why it is important for you to understand that early season stats can be misleading.
Of course, this doesn’t take away from the fact that crunching numbers and analyzing stats is a fun activity and makes for great discussion with fellow fans and friends. The sample size may be small but that doesn’t mean a player hasn’t performed well or has lost his magical touch. But, as mentioned above, you should not base your judgments, especially when it comes to MLB fantasy, on early season stats. Here are a few reasons why:
Bartolo Colon and Russell Martin Have One Hit Each
Now, two players you wouldn’t normally be comparing for their individual performances are the Mets’ Bartolo Colon and Blue Jays’ Russell Martin. As you would know, Colon is a pitcher while Martin is a catcher. As of now, they both have one hit each for the season. Colon got one in the second game and Martin has been slow off the blocks so far. However, what’s interesting is that Colon has been playing in the MLB for 18 years and has recorded 13 hits in all. On the other hand, Martin had 13 hits in the first dozen games he played in 2006. So, it’s like comparing apples to oranges.
No Earned Runs off Nick Martinez
Just who is Nick Martinez? Few people outside the Texas Rangers’ fan base are aware of the 24-year old who played as a rookie last season, where he had a 4.55 ERA. As of now, Martinez hasn’t had an earned run scored off him. Of course, that is bound to change over the course of the season but if one were to look at the stats today, Martinez would be prime candidate for MVP. There’s no way he is better than Clayton Kershaw, who sits well below him on the table. Oh, and Kershaw might just be the best pitcher in the MLB at present and he has an ERA of over 5.
DJ LeMahieu is Averaging .514
That is a phenomenal batting average, by any stretch of the imagination. DJ LeMahieu of the Rockies is one of the best basemen in the MLB and he is currently averaging .514. However, that doesn’t mean he is the next Babe Ruth in the making. LeMahieu came into this season with a career average of .276, which goes to show he is over-performing. Smart money would put him down for an average of around .300 by the time the season concludes but there is no way he will be able to sustain that .500+. If he does, it would be an MLB miracle, to say the least.
e played in 2006. So, it’s like comparing apples to oranges.
These are just a few examples of how early season stats don’t necessarily point towards what’s going to happen over the remaining games. After all, it is a long season and the first 10 games only reflect how well the players prepared for the season and what kind of form they are in. So, apologies to Messrs LeMahieu, Colon and Martinez, the numbers will change drastically!

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